Mega Dams In the Horn of Africa Killing Rivers : October 2015

Monday, October 19, 2015

Egypt faces another dam challenge - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East

Construction workers are seen at a distance in a section of Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam, as it undergoes construction, in Benishangul Gumuz Region, Guba Woreda, in Ethiopia, March 31, 2015. (photo by REUTERS/Tiksa Negeri)

Egypt faces another dam challenge

Cairo — Controversy prevailed in the Egyptian public opinion, after Deltares, a Dutch advisory institute, announced on Sept. 15 its withdrawal from a study to assess the risks that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which is under construction on the Blue Nile, can cause to Egypt and Sudan. The withdrawal from the project by Deltares has been met by a wave of objections in Egypt for fear that this could further obstruct the completion of the study, which was supposed to be completed last March — at the time, the research hadn't even started yet. Ethiopia, on the other hand, has completed 47% of the required work on the damand is preparing to inaugurate and operate the first stage in October 2016. This initial operation threatens to reduce Egypt’s share of the Nile waters, currently standing about 55.5 billion cubic meters, by 14.5 billion cubic meters.

Deltares justified its withdrawal in a statement posted on its website Sept. 15, saying that the conditions as imposed by the Tripartite National Committee and BRL Group, a French consultancy firm that is also carrying out a study alongside Deltares before the latter withdrew, on how the study should be carried out did not provide sufficient guarantees that the results delivered would be unbiased and accurate.

The negotiations between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, on the one hand, and Deltares and BRL, on the other, failed to resolve the differences over the tasks to be carried out by Deltares and BRL in order to conduct the planned study. BRL, which is required to conduct 70% of the study, made an offer where it monopolizes the study and turns Deltares into a subcontractor that performs the tasks delegated to it by BRL, whichDeltares has rejected.

Egyptian Minister of Irrigation Hossam Maghazi told Al-Monitor that the Egyptian government confirms that it is confident Ethiopia will abide by the agreement of principles between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan on Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam, which was signed by Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir in Khartoum last March, to not cause any damage to Egypt in the operation of the Renaissance Dam.

Yet former Egyptian Minister of Irrigation Mohamed Nasr Eldin Allam told Al-Monitor that there is a loophole in the provisions of the agreement of principles, which is resulting in Ethiopia not abiding by the agreement with Egypt in terms of operating the dam and the date of the first filling of the Renaissance Dam reservoir. The agreement stipulates that Ethiopia wait 15 months from the start of the study before starting to fill the tank. Ethiopia is getting ready to fill the tank while the study has not commenced yet. Allam said that this will pose a threat to Egypt’s share of the water in case the dam was operated without this study.

Article 5 of the agreement, which is on the principle to cooperate on the first filling and operation of the dam, stipulates “to implement the recommendations of the International Panel of Experts [IPOE], respect the final outcomes of the final report, and agree on the guidelines and rules on the first filling of the dam, which the owner of the dam may adjust from time to time, and inform the downstream countries of any unforeseen or urgent circumstances requiring adjustments in the operation of the dam, in a timeline of 15 months from the inception of the two studies recommended by the IPOE.”

Allam accused the Egyptian negotiator of killing time to the advantage of Ethiopia and asked why the study is planned to take place while Ethiopia is already preparing for the opening of the first stage of the dam and has already completed a significant part of the construction.

According to water experts in Egypt, the operation of the first stage of the Renaissance Dam and the filling of the first part of the lake with an estimated 14.5 billion cubic meters means that Egypt's share of the water will be reduced by 14.5 billion cubic meters, which can irrigate 3 million feddan (3.1 million acres). Moreover, Ethiopia’s completion of the dam construction and decision to completely fill the lake, with a reservoir capacity and evaporation rate of up to 90 billion cubic meters, means that it will hold 30 billion cubic meters of water flood every year to fill it. This will cause Lake Nasser to dry completely, and therefore the electricity generation using the Aswan Dam will be halted.

In this regard, Maghazi said, “Who is paying attention to the importance of completing the study when the dam is under construction and the first stage is scheduled to operate next year? The study that was set to be conducted with Ethiopia has nothing to do with the building designs of the dam as a facility. Yet we are discussing and studying the dam’s large storage capacity, which Egypt rejects.”

Maghazi stressed that the study will determine the damage that could be inflicted on Egypt as a result of storage capacity, as well as the operating mechanism to avoid such damage.

For his part, Alaa Yassin, Egyptian government spokesman for the Renaissance Dam file, told Al-Monitor, “We are acting in several directions to resolve the differences between Deltares and BRL and resume the required studies on the Renaissance Dam. Yet there are no guarantees that there might be a solution, honestly.”

He added, “Time is being wasted. It is in the advantage of one of the sides to stall, while time is a pressure factor for the Egyptian side.” Yassin concluded that the agreement of principles requires that Ethiopia agree with Egypt on the rules to operate the first stage. He did not deny that the article stipulates that this takes place in a timeline of 15 months from the inception of the studies.

Cairo is currently engaged in the development of several alternatives to overcome the crisis of attrition, as more than a year has passed without the inception of the study. This has prompted Egypt to call on Addis Ababa and Khartoum to hold an urgent meeting, which may take place at the end of October, to resolve the differences between the companies in charge of the study and to convince Deltares to retract its decision to withdraw and to carry out the tasks to complete the study

Tuesday, October 6, 2015

Egypt: More setbacks for stalled Renaissance Dam project | Al Bawaba

Egypt: More setbacks for stalled Renaissance Dam project | Al Bawaba: "A tripartite meeting that was supposed to be held in Egypt on Sunday has been postponed upon the request of Addis Ababa in the latest setback to efforts to reach a compromise over Ethiopia's Renaissance Dam.

Egypt had invited Ethiopian and Sudanese officials, along with representatives from the consultancy firm studying the impact of the dam, to a meeting headed by the Egyptian National Committee of the Grand Ethiopian Dam (TNC).

The meeting was arranged to discuss the recent differences between the countries over the building of the Renaissance Dam in Ethiopia.

The tripartite meeting was scheduled to take place in Egypt on Sunday 4 October, a date that was confirmed during President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi's meeting with Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn during the UN General Assembly meeting.

The two leaders met on the sidelines of the General Assembly in New York last week and confirmed that negotiations over the controversial dam would continue on 4 October.

This is not the first setback since the three countries signed the declaration of principles in March, which aims to safeguard the interests of all parties involved.

In September, Egypt expressed its concern after the two foreign consultancy firms failed to deliver their reports to the tripartite committee on time.

They had also missed a deadline in August, forcing the tripartite committee to re-schedule for 5 September.

The Dutch consultancy firm, Deltares, then withdrew from the assessment of the dam in September. The firm reasoned that the conditions set by the TNC did not provide Deltares with the opportunity to carry out an independent, high quality study.

The continuous stalling by Ethiopian officials and the withdrawal of the Dutch firm has put future negotiations in jeopardy.

Ex-irrigation minister Mohamed Nasr Allam has called on the Egyptian government to appeal to the United Nations to resolve the matter due to the failure of negotiations with Ethiopia.

Egypt, with its share of 55 billion cubic meters, is currently suffering from a water deficit of 20 billion cubic meters which it compensates through water recycling, a process that is not viable in the long run.

The dam, scheduled to be completed in 2017, will be Africa's largest hydroelectric power plant with a storage capacity of 74 billion cubic meters of water."

'via Blog this'

Ethiopia accused of stalling negotiations with Egypt and Sudan over Renaissance Dam

Future of negotiations remains unclear as Ethiopia asks to postpone the tripartite meeting of 4 October

Ahram Online

A tripartite meeting that was supposed to be held in Egypt on Sunday has been postponed upon the request of Addis Ababa in the latest setback to efforts to reach a compromise over Ethiopia's Renaissance Dam.

Egypt had invited Ethiopian and Sudanese officials, along with representatives from the consultancy firm studying the impact of the dam, to a meeting headed by the Egyptian National Committee of the Grand Ethiopian Dam (TNC).

The meeting was arranged to discuss the recent differences between the countries over the building of the Renaissance Dam in Ethiopia.

The tripartite meeting was scheduled to take place in Egypt on Sunday 4 October, a date that was confirmed during President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi's meeting with Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn during the UN General Assembly meeting.

The two leaders met on the sidelines of the General Assembly in New York last week and confirmed that negotiations over the controversial dam would continue on 4 October.

This is not the first setback since the three countries signed the declaration of principles in March, which aims to safeguard the interests of all parties involved.

In September, Egypt expressed its concern after the two foreign consultancy firms failed to deliver their reports to the tripartite committee on time.

They had also missed a deadline in August, forcing the tripartite committee to re-schedule for 5 September.

The Dutch consultancy firm, Deltares, then withdrew from the assessment of the dam in September. The firm reasoned that the conditions set by the TNC did not provide Deltares with the opportunity to carry out an independent, high quality study.

The continuous stalling by Ethiopian officials and the withdrawal of the Dutch firm has put future negotiations in jeopardy.

Ex-irrigation minister Mohamed Nasr Allam has called on the Egyptian government to appeal to the United Nations to resolve the matter due to the failure of negotiations with Ethiopia.

Egypt, with its share of 55 billion cubic meters, is currently suffering from a water deficit of 20 billion cubic meters which it compensates through water recycling, a process that is not viable in the long run.

The dam, scheduled to be completed in 2017, will be Africa's largest hydroelectric power plant with a storage capacity of 74 billion cubic meters of water.

Thursday, October 1, 2015

Cairo announces urgent meeting on Ethiopian dam

Tuesday, 29 September 2015 15:44

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Egypt’s presidential spokesman, Alaa Youssef

Egypt’s presidential spokesman Alaa Youssef said yesterday that the Tripartite National Committee (TNC) is to convene on 5 October to discuss the issue of the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), MENA reported.

The TNC, which is made up of Egyptian, Sudanese and Ethiopian representatives, was set up to evaluate the impact of the GERD on Egypt and Sudan, as well as to conduct studies relating to the environmental, economic and social impacts of this dam on Egypt and Sudan.

Youssef said that Egyptian President Abdel Fatah Al-Sisi met with Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn on the side lines of the UN General Assembly meeting in New York. They discussed the issue of the dam and the measures to be considered by the TNC in next week’s meeting.

Desalegn, according to Youssef, affirmed that GERD “is a symbol of cooperation among Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia,” and that the main goal of the dam “is combating poverty and realising development and prosperity.”

Egyptian Prime Minister Sharif Ismail announced on Saturday that there are three issues which affect Egypt’s view of the dam: the country’s portion of water from the Nile, that the dam is not to be used for political purposes and that it must bolster future Egyptian development.

How to Share Water Along the Nile - The New York Times

By JOHN H. LIENHARD V and KENNETH M. STRZEPEKSEPT. 28, 2015

CAMBRIDGE, Mass. — On the Blue Nile in Ethiopia, construction is underway on a public works project of gigantic physical proportions and exquisite political delicacy. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, now about halfway finished, amounts to a test: With water becoming precious enough to be the stuff of war, can nations find ways to share it?

So far, so good. The project is moving toward completion, and a recent joint declaration of principles by the leaders of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan pledges cooperation and no “significant” downstream harm. That is critical, given that the dam will control nearly two-thirds of the water on which Egypt depends. But for the cooperation to be meaningful, these three countries will need serious technical analysis. Poor assessment of such matters as the variability of annual rainfall or minimum flows required to maintain downstream water quality could undermine a decent agreement, leading to conflict of unpredictable intensity.

That’s because the flow of the Nile is climatic roulette. It experiences periods of plentiful water and periods of extended drought, and it always has: Remember the story (in both the Bible and the Quran) of seven years of plenty, and then seven lean years? But now the stakes are much higher: Egypt’s population is 90 million, and growing. That country’s Aswan High Dam, downstream from the Ethiopian dam, helps to moderate these fluctuations, but a second large dam and its reservoir higher upriver are going to complicate things.

Egypt now receives virtually all its water from the Nile, which flows through Cairo.CreditKhaled Desouki/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Egypt now receives virtually all its water from the Nile — about 60 billion cubic meters a year, slightly above the amount provided for in its treaty agreement with Sudan. That amounts to the withdrawal of 700 cubic meters per capita per year. Compare that with California, which annually withdraws about 1,400 cubic meters per capita from multiple sources, including 30 percent of the Colorado River’s annual flow, and you understand just how scarce and precious the Nile’s water is to Egypt’s welfare.

California depends heavily on Lake Powell and Lake Mead, the reservoirs behind dams on the Colorado River, which together store slightly more than three years’ worth of that river’s total flow. The new dam in Ethiopia will have an even larger storage capacity than that of Powell and Mead combined, but still amounts to just 1.5 years of the flow of the Blue Nile alone. Adding in the very large reservoir behind Egypt’s Aswan High Dam gives a storage of about 1.75 years of the total flow of the Nile. It’s not a wide margin of safety for a long drought — as Californians will attest.

The monsoon rains in Ethiopia that will feed the new dam come mainly during just three months, so by storing that water, the new dam will moderate and smooth out the flow of the Blue Nile, the 900-mile-long headstream of the Nile itself. It will also generate huge amounts of electricity, the sale of which could finance much-needed development in Ethiopia — except that transmission lines to export the power are not yet being built.

Just as California has used stored water to become an agricultural powerhouse, Sudan will benefit by using the more stable flow of water from the new dam to raise its agricultural productivity. This will allow Sudan, which sits between Ethiopia and Egypt, to finally employ its full treaty allotment of river water, which in turn will reduce what is available to Egypt.

It’s clear that a cooperative agreement among Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt is needed to avoid conflict and downstream harm. This includes agreement on what amounts to “significant” harm, given that, in the past, Egypt has been willing to go to war to protect its water.

All three countries stand to benefit if they work together. The dam’s huge storage capacity could help both Sudan and Egypt during drought years. And if Egypt were to agree to buy the power that the new dam will generate (and to build the transmission lines to connect to it, perhaps with international help), then Ethiopia will benefit economically from stored water that has to flow downstream eventually.

Here is where the technical issues will be critical. Last November, the Abdul Latif Jameel World Water and Food Security Lab at M.I.T. convened experts on Nile Basin water resources. They pointed out that management of a river system with multiple dams required sophisticated joint management with a shared knowledge base and scientific modeling framework. The hard negotiations ahead to achieve detailed agreements on such things as reservoir operation policy, power trading, dam safety and irrigation practices will require that foreign policy and water experts from each of the three countries have a shared understanding of the technical issues and a willingness to compromise.

In May 2015, the three countries engaged technical consultants to assist with these problems, but that arrangement has since collapsed over disagreements about project management. It behooves the international community to help, through support of regional efforts like the Nile Basin Initiative, to build scientific and engineering coordination and knowledge among the three countries, provide impartial expertise, set up a management system and perhaps offer a process to resolve disputes.

The world needs to get good at sharing water, and right away. The alternative is frequent regional conflicts of unknowable proportions.