War Drum On the Ethiopia Dam! የጦርነት ነጋሪት በኢትዮጵያ ግድብ ላይ!

 War Drum On the Ethiopian Dam! 

1.-  Egypt-Sudan hold military exercise amid crisis with Ethiopia - Al-Monitor

2.- Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: 'All Options Open', Egypt Warns After Another Collapse in Talks - Sputnik Int

3.- 'All options are on the table': Egypt's president warns on Ethiopian dam - The National

4.- US, Ethiopia Discuss Importance of Continued Regional Dialogue on GERD - Asharq Al-awsat - 

5.- Sudan says Nile dam talks end without progress due to “Ethiopian obstinacy” - Capital FM Kenya

6.- Egypt supports South Sudan to secure Nile share -  Al-Monitor

7.- Climate change threatens the Nile's critical water supply - Quartz

8.- How will the second filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam harm Egyptians? Egypttoday

9.-Ethiopia vows to defy threats from neighbours and fill mega-dam- The Times

10- Renaissance Dam: Houthis propose mediation for Ethiopia, Sudan, Egypt - Middle East Monitor

11.- Ethiopia invites Egypt, Sudan to nominate operators in data exchange on GERD's 2nd filling - Daily News Egypt

12.- Egypt rejects Ethiopian invitation to exchange data on second GERD filling - Daily News Egypt

13.- Dam crisis: Options at hand for Egypt - opinion - The Jerusalem Post

14.-Nile dam crisis: Egypt and Sudan reject 'suspicious' Ethiopian proposal - The National

15.-Archbishop of Alexandria warns that dam project has reached a 'potentially dangerous' phase -  Church Times

16.- Egypt, Uganda sign security cooperation agreement as Sisi warns Ethiopia over Nile dam The New Arab

17.- Egypt's Sisi threatens Ethiopia with war over Nile dam  - PRESSTV

18.- A Cold War is Brewing on the Blue Nile - Bloomberg

19.-Tensions Mount in North Africa After Dam Talks End in Failure - The Media Line

20.-Negotiations over GERD dispute fail to reach agreement China daily USA

Ethiopianism.tv War Drum On the Ethiopian Dam! የጦርነት ነጋሪት በኢትዮጵያ ግድብ ላይ! Apr 16, 2021-15

"Arab League takes concern regarding the stalling of the Renaissance Dam negotiations" - Egypt Today

 
 
 

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CAIRO – 23 June 2020: The Arab League announced, Tuesday that Egypt and Sudan water security is an integral part of the Arab national security.

In its 14-article final statement, the emergency Arab League Council meeting at the level of Foreign Ministers, refused any action that affects the rights of all three countries sharing the Nile waters. The minsters expressed their serious concern regarding the stalling of the Renaissance Dam negotiations.

On Sunday, Egypt’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Sameh Shoukry accused Ethiopian officials of stoking antagonism between the countries, during an interview with the Associated Press.

“Egypt wants the United Nations Security Council to undertake its responsibilities and prevent Ethiopia from starting to fill its massive, newly built hydroelectric dam on the Nile River in July amid a breakdown in negotiations,” Sameh told AP.

"The responsibility of the Security Council is to address a pertinent threat to international peace and security, and certainly the unilateral actions by Ethiopia in this regard would constitute such a threat," the minister clarified.

Ethiopia announced Friday that it would begin filling the dam’s reservoir in July even after the latest round of talks with Egypt and Sudan failed to reach a deal governing how the dam will be filled and operated.

Shoukry warned that filling the reservoir without an accord would violate the 2015 declaration of principles governing their talks — and rule out a return to negotiations.

The Arab League final statement also refused and condemned all sorts of foreign intervention in Libya warning against the longevity of the ongoing conflict.

The statement first article emphasized adherence to all previous decisions of the Arab League Council on Libya, including the latest decisions issued by the Arab Summit in Tunisia last year.

The second article of the statement stressed on Libya’s unity, sovereignty, territorial integrity, stability, and the welfare of its people and their right in democratic future. It also stressed the need to work to restore the Libyan institutions role in serving the Libyan people away from any external interference.

In its third article, the Arab League final statement highlighted the importance of reaching a political solution in Libya, along with supporting the Libyan political agreement signed in Skhirat and affirming the role of all legitimate institutions emanating from it.

Article number four emphasized the central and essential role of the Libyan neighboring countries and the importance of coordination among them to end the Libyan crisis.

Number five, the Arab Council of Ministers stressed its rejection and necessity of preventing external interventions of all kinds in Libya, as it facilitates the movement of foreign terrorists into Libya, as well as violating international resolutions on the arms embargo that threaten the security of the Libyan neighbors and the region.

The statement explained in the sixth article that reaching a political settlement between Libyans parties is the only solution to return security and stability to the country, and to eliminate terrorism.

And in the seventh article, the final statement demanded the withdrawal of all foreign forces on the Libyan territories, including the Libyan territorial waters. It also warned against the consequences of continuing military escalations in order to avoid complicating the conflict.

In its speech during the meeting, Shoukry said that Egypt will not hesitate to take every measure to prevent Libya from falling under the control of terrorist groups and armed militias.

Shoukry noted that Cairo was keen to work through all the diplomatic means to bring the views of different Libyans together and was involved in all the international initiatives aimed at achieving a political settlement in Libya, including the Libyan-Libyan political initiative "Cairo Declaration" launched on June 6.

He confirmed Egypt's keenness on the achievement of Berlin's political and economic resolutions, as well as the (5 + 5) resolution that will put in place the agreed security and military arrangements.

He stressed Egypt's active support and coordination with the efforts of the United Nations.

Shoukry also asserted the importance of working to reform the Libyan economy, through reforming the institutions under the parliament’s supervision and activating the Oil Corporation and the Central Bank in a framework of transparency and fair distribution of wealth.

The Egyptian minister warned of the consequences of remaining foreign interventions on the Libyan territories to support terrorist groups and militias by transferring foreign mercenaries and terrorists from Syria to Libya in a way that destabilizes Libyan internal security and represents a grave threat to Arab national security.

On June 19, Egypt called for an emergency meeting for the Arab League Council at the level of Foreign Ministers to discuss the latest updates regarding number of urgent issues including the political updates in Libya. The meeting was held via video conference, and headed by Oman.

On the same day of June 19, Egypt called the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to intervene in the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam issue, asserting the importance of continuing the negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan in order to reach a fair and just solution for all three countries.

Egypt stressed the need to prevent any unilateral measures that might affect the chances of reaching a balanced agreement.

Egypt's request to the Security Council was based on Article 35 of the United Nations Charter, which allows member states to alert the council to any update that might threaten the international peace and security.

Egypt’s FM Shoukry to embark in African tour to deliver message from Sisi on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) Egypt Today

FILE: Egypt's Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry

Egypt’s FM Shoukry to embark in African tour to deliver message from Sisi

By: Egypt Today staff

 

Mon, Mar. 16, 2020

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CAIRO – 16 March 2020: Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry will embark on an African tour starting, Tuesday to deliver a message from President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi to his African Counterparts.

According to Foreign Ministry’s Spokesman Ahmed Hafez, the tour will include South Africa, Tanzania, DR Congo, South Sudan, Burundi, Niger, and Rwanda.

On March 13, Shoukry handed his French counterpart Jean-Yves Le Drian, a message from President Sisi to French President Emmanuel Macron regarding the latest developments of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

According to Hafez, handing the message took place during a meeting that took place in Paris.

During the meeting, Shoukry called on France and the EU countries to exert more efforts to push Ethiopia into signing the agreement on filling and operating the dam, with the aim of maintaining security and stability in the Horn of Africa region, the spokesman added.

Nearly week ago, Shoukry embarked on a tour of which he visited number of Arab and European countries to deliver Sisi’s message to several leaders regarding GERD.

On March 11, Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al-Khalifa affirmed his country’s solidarity with Egypt to ensure its legitimate Nile water rights, as Egypt and Ethiopia have been in a diplomatic conflict, especially recently, over the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

In a meeting with Egyptian Foreign Minister Shoukry in Bahrain, King Hamad said he considers Egypt’s national security a main pillar of Arab security, Bahrain News Agency, the state’s agency, reported.

President Sisi also sent a message to Jordanian King Abdullah II on the recent stalemate between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia on GERD. The message was delivered by Shoukry.

"King Abdullah II expressed his country’s support to Egypt to preserve its water security," said the spokesman.

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam completion controversy

BY JEHRON MUHAMMAD | LAST UPDATED: NOV 20, 2018 - 9:02:39 PM

What's your opinion on this article?

In this June 28, 2013 file photo, construction work takes place, at the site of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam near Assosa, Ethiopia. Earlier this year, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi sought to defuse tensions with Ethiopia and Sudan, reassuring them that his country is not meddling in their internal affairs or planning to go to war against them. Egypt has expressed mounting alarm over the soon-to-be-completed upstream dam that Cai-ro fears could cut into its share of the Nile River, which provides nearly all its freshwater. Photo: AP/Wide World Photo/Elias Asmare

The Grand Ehiopian Renaissance Dam is edging closer to completion in Ethiopia, but not without ruffling a few feathers along the way, most notably, Egypt. Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi recently told reporters that, “we need to turn Ethiopia’s goodwill into formal agreements” and ensure the nearly completed Ethiopian dam is not used for “political purposes.” The general turned president did not elaborate, saying only that Egypt has seen “positive signs” from Ethiopia’s government during the process.

Construction of the dam began in 2011 and is called the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). It was formally known as the Millennium Dam and during the planning stage was called Project X. It is considered Africa’s largest hydropower project and the 8th-largest in the world. Upon completion it will generate 6,000 megawatts of electricity and its reservoir will be able to hold over 70 billion cubic meters of water, which is nearly equal to the flow of the Nile river in one year. The dam is located in the Benishangul-Gumuz region of Ethiopia, on the Blue Nile River, to the east of Sudan. The project, a source of national pride for many Ethiopians, is owned by the Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation (EEPCO).

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will reduce water evaporation. According to Water-Technology.net, the regulated flow of Nile river water from the dam will “improve agriculture and the impact from evaporation of water from the dam will be minimal compared with other dams in Ethiopia, which will help in water conservation.”

In addition, Egypt’s Aswan High Dam and other dams in Ethiopia, “equates to around 19 billion cubic meters.” It’s estimated that the Ethiopian dam will reduce the capacity of the Aswan Dam, saving roughly six billion cubic meters of water. 

The impact on the region could be significant. Previous agreements about utilization of the river signed in 1929 and 1959 favored Egypt, which historically adopted an aggressive approach to the flow of the Nile River.

According to conversation.com, “The first agreement was made between Great Britain, as the colonial power in eastern Africa, and Egypt. Cairo was favored over other riparian (situated on banks of Nile River) countries as an important agricultural asset. In addition, the Egyptian-run Suez Canal was vital for British imperial ambitions.” The British riparian colonies included: Sudan, Uganda, Kenya and Tanganyika (now Tanzania) as well as Ethiopia. They had no say in the outcome of the agreement.

Cairo considers the Nile a national security matter and statements—though decreasing—continue to include threats of military action against Ethiopia should it interfere with the flow as set out in both agreements. After independence all the upstream riparian states argued in favor of a new, more inclusive legal framework for governing the Nile River Basin. They argued that they are not bound by these agreements because they were never parties to them.

Outlined in previous agreements is that Egypt would receive 48 billion cubic meters of water annually and Sudan four billion cubic meters. The 1929 agreement granted Egypt veto power over construction projects on the Nile River or any of its tributaries in an effort to minimize any interference with the flow of water into the Nile. In 1959, according to Brookings.edu, “Egypt and an independent Sudan signed a bilateral agreement, which effectively reinforced the provisions of the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty.”

The 1959 agreement increased the two countries share of water, Egypt’s share to 55.5 billion cubic meters and Sudan’s to 18.5 billion.

In April of 2011, then-prime minister of Ethiopia, Meles Zenawi, laid the foundation for the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Shortly after the prime minister’s announcement, authorities in Cairo launched a campaign against what they said was an attempt by Addis Ababa to interfere with Egypt’s water rights.

Egypt’s president at the time, Mohamed Morsi, angrily stated, while not “calling for war” with Ethiopia, that “Egypt’s water security cannot be violated at all.” He further stated, “all options are open,” and that Egyptians would not accept any projects on the Nile River that threatened their livelihood. 

The absurdity of this policy is mind boggling and only made sense under colonial rule, since roughly 85 percent of the water that flows into the Nile comes from the Ethiopian highlands through the Blue Nile. The remaining comes from the White Nile.

Showing some willingness to play ball, Egypt, through President el-Sissi signed an agreement that included both Ethiopia and Sudan.

“While it is true that Egyptians rely totally on the waters of the Nile River for all their needs, they must be sensitive to the development needs of the upstream riparian states, especially given the fact that the latter, particularly Ethiopia, are in a position to cause significant harm to the quantity and quality of water that flows into the Nile,” cautioned brookings.edu.

Other challenges include: the Nile is shrinking due to less and more intermittent precipitation in Ethiopia and in other upstream countries, writes Salam Abdulqadir Abdulrahman, of the University of Human Development in Iraq. “In addition, Lake Victoria, the source of 20%-30% of the Nile waters, is shrinking at an alarming rate,” he added.

But Ethiopia also has to consider Egypt’s water needs. According to analysis by the Washington Institute, the Nile’s flow will fall drastically during the new dam’s reservoir filling period, forcing Egypt to make up for these annual water losses.

While it appears Egypt and Ethiopia are trying to find an amicable solution, the countries have not made much headway, notes the Washington Institute. The project is over 60 percent completed but the issue with the reservoir filling period is the biggest remaining issue and Egypt would like to prolong it as much as possible to lessen the annual decrease in Nile water supplies, the institute explains.

Ethiopia recently appointed engineer Kifle Hora as the dam’s new project manager, according to Ethiopian Electric Power. Mr. Hora who will be signed on by engineers Ehpherem Woldekidan and Dekadu Kebede, replaces engineer Simegnew Bekele who was found dead in his car in Addis Ababa, in July. Mr. Bekele was the prominent face of the project.

In addition to meeting Ethiopia’s energy needs, once the dam is completed it will also act as a driving force for exporting electricity to neighboring nations, which will prove crucial to generating foreign exchange.

Those neighboring nations will include Sudan. According to Stratfor/Worldview, “The prospect of more electrical power effectively convinced Khartoum to switch sides from Cairo to Addis Ababa, inevitably infuriating Egypt.” Follow @jehronmuhammad on Twitter.

Ethiopia’s Mega Dam project stalled due to corruption

Grand scandal from Ethiopia’s mega dam project reveals that nearly six billion birr is misappropriated. METEC is behind it.

 Sources borkena & Fana 

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Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam has caused internal and external controversy from the get go in 2011.

At home, Ethiopians saw the project initially not as unnecessary but as untimely from the point of view of polarized political environment and chronic good governance issues.

Many Ethiopian analysts even thought that the $US 4,5 billion mega project was introduced at the time to divert the attention of the Ethiopian mass from undertaking fundamental political change inspired by the “Arab Spring.”

Others saw the project as a conducive way to misappropriate resources to the benefit of the then influential and powerful elites who oversaw the project one way or another.

Externally, it was feared, at the time, that the project would bring Ethiopia in a collision course with Egypt and politicized Ethiopian analysts thought that the time was not right for confrontation. Activists and analysts believed that Ethiopia is divided due to the policies of the late prime minister Meles Zenawi and that would provide Egypt, in view of past efforts, an opportunity to inject billions of dollars to deepen the division to lead Ethiopia to chaos.

In fact, Egypt has been trying diplomatic and other means to sabotage the project as it believed that it would hard Egypt’s share of the water from the Blue Nile over which Ethiopia is building the dam. It took years of diplomatic efforts to convince Egypt that the project will be completed in a way that lower riparian countries (Sudan and Egypt) are not affected.Grand Scandals revealed

When GERD project was unveiled in 2011, project delivery time frame was given as five years. In terms of funds, it was estimated that the project would cost about 88 billion Ethiopian Birr (about $US 4.5 billion).

An investigative journalism documentary by Fana Broadcasting Corporate which was aired yesterday that seven years later the project is no where near completion but has already consumed over 70 billion Ethiopian Birr.

The documentary unveiled misappropriation of huge funds by Metals and Engineering Corporation (METEC), Ethiopian government owned enterprise. It was hired to do the electro-mechanical and hydro-steel work aspect of the project at a cost of 25.58 billion Ethiopian Birr, according to Abraham Belay Executive Director of Ethiopian Electric Power, who owns the project on behalf of the Ethiopian government.

Salini Construction, an Italian Company, was hired to undertake the civil engineering aspect of the project and has so far completed between 70-75 % of contracted out work, according to the report by Fana, for which it is paid about €1.48 billion. Pay out to Salini is said to be 5 % higher which was incurred due to late payment on the part of Ethiopian Electric Power authority.

On the other hand, METEC, has completed only about 25 to 30 percent of contracted out work (and it is verified by the consultancy company- Salini) while it is paid out 65.65 % of the project cost (16.79 billion Ethiopian Birr). And here is where the big scandal comes. METEC which was under the leadership of top TPLF military generals, like Kinfe Dagnaw who was made to retire, has even received full payments for some works that are not even started.

The project is stalled because of METEC as Salini Construction must wait for electro-mechanical and hydro-steel work to be completed to carry out work on its turf.

The project delivery is already delayed by two years and it remains unclear as to how long it will take to compete the remaining work which is over 70 percent as far as METEC is concerned and about 30 % in the case of Salini Construction.

METEC is paid out about 5.8 billion birrs in what appears to be rather a fraudulent payment. And no authority is held responsible for it so far.

The project manager was found dead in his car at Meskel Square on July 28,2018. Findings of the investigation is not yet revealed to the public but there is a belief that he was assassinated. Some think that his death is orchestrated by Former TPLF authorities who oversaw METEC. Others think that he is possibly assassinated by a mercenary hired by Egypt.

Reactions to the scandal

Ethiopians, from within the country and abroad, have been contributing to the dam project in the form of purchasing bonds not just as an investment but also as duty for national cause.
Workers have been paying a portion of their income, just like pay as you go pension plan, towards the Grand Renaissance Dam.

Suspicion was high regarding the public project as it was delayed despite the government before Abiy Ahmed administration propagated that the project is near completion.

News of grand scandal, and Fana has cited important financial and other documents related to it, has shocked the public. Anger is high.

Some activists are already mobilizing Ethiopians to take to the street to demand that those who are responsible for misappropriation or even an outright theft of funds is held accountable.

The government of Abiy Ahmed has already ordered the break up of METET into two; one of which is to remain under the military and the rest is to be transferred to a civilian administration.

But that is not what Ethiopians want, apparently. Ethiopians rather want full wrath of the law be applied to those who stole public funds from the project in different forms.

As a Dam Rises in Ethiopia, Its Manager Is Found Dead- NYT

CAIRO — The manager of a $4 billion dam under construction on the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia was found shot dead on Thursday, drawing an anguished reaction from Ethiopia’s leaders and setting on edge one of Africa’s most contentious development projects.

The project manager, Semegnew Bekele, who was overseeing the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, was found slumped behind the wheel of his Toyota Land Cruiser in Meskel Square in the capital, Addis Ababa, at 8:30 a.m. He had a gunshot wound to his head, the federal police commissioner, Zeinu Jamal, told reporters.

The police also found a pistol inside the car and were trying to identify its owner, Mr. Jamal said. The police commissioner did not say whether he suspected foul play, fueling speculation that the death was linked to Mr. Semegnew’s work.

When completed, the giant Renaissance dam is expected to generate 6,400 megawatts of hydroelectricity that will more than double Ethiopia’s current production and potentially allow the country to earn hundreds of millions of dollars in energy export revenues. But the project has met with stiff resistance from Egypt, where many fear it will cut into the country’s already strained supply of Nile water.

Mr. Semegnew, 57, a short, loquacious man with a salt-and-pepper beard, was the project’s engineer and unofficial ambassador. He explained the dam’s benefits to the Ethiopian taxpayers who funded it, and sought to assure nervous Egyptians that it would cause them no harm.

“This is our baby,” he told The New York Times in May during a tour of the dam in the Ethiopian highlands, five miles from the border with Sudan. “This is what we are saying. Not just me — all Ethiopians.”

His sudden death sent ripples of sorrow across Ethiopia on Thursday. Grief-stricken citizens scuffled with the police as they attempted to lay flowers near the bloodstained vehicle where Mr. Semegnew was found. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was “saddened & utterly shocked,” his chief of staff, Fitsum Arega, said in a Twitter post.

The end is Nile: International cooperation on Egypt's water crisis EU

Ethiopia is building Africa's largest dam, crucial to its energy security and economic growth. It is also causing issues with neighbours on the Nile, particularly Egypt, which could suffer from absolute water scarcity once the project is complete. 

Egypt’s concern about the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has gained a new intensity. Since its launch in 2011, the project has elicited a mixture of denial and opposition from Cairo – despite the conclusion of a water management agreement between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan in 2015. Earlier this year, Egypt reportedly considered a response to GERD that involved either a bilateral agreement with Ethiopia (which would exclude Sudan) or even military action.

However, judging by its recent bilateral and regional diplomatic efforts, the government of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has accepted that the dam will be built and is instead working hard to mitigate the problems the project could create for Egypt. Sustaining this drive will require determined effort, both domestically and in the wider region.

A $4 billion feat of engineering with a planned production capacity of 6,000 megawatts, GERD is crucial to Ethiopia’s energy security and economic growth. Ethiopia hopes that the hydroelectric dam – Africa’s largest – will extend the power grid nationwide by 2025, serving the roughly 86 million Ethiopians who currently lack access to electricity.

When Addis Ababa first embarked on the project, Cairo objected that it would violate regional treaties Egypt and Sudan signed in 1929 and amended in 1959. Cairo believed that these agreements, which allocate most of the Nile’s water to the signatories, would act as a bulwark against unilateral measures that reduced its access to the river. Yet, under intense domestic pressure to enhance its economy and aware that political upheaval threatened Egyptian stability, Ethiopia embarked on the project nonetheless, funding most of the work itself.

GERD will divert much of the water that has historically flowed into the Nile Delta along other routes. With the project 60 percent complete, Ethiopia can begin collecting water and filling up portions of the dam in a process that could take up to 15 years. As a consequence, Egypt’s supply of fresh water from the Nile will drop by an estimated 25 percent over the next seven years.

For Cairo, this is an existential threat. Because the river provides around 85 percent of Egypt’s fresh water, such a drop could cause the country to suffer from absolute water scarcity in the near future – unless it reforms its water usage policies. As it stands, a rapidly expanding population, wasteful irrigation practices, high levels of water pollution, and a lack of effective water recycling or desalination facilities have precipitated a sharp rise in Egypt’s water deficit.

Egypt should endeavour to defuse any conflict arising in negotiations over these challenges, because it has the most to lose

To address the problems associated with GERD and avert a crisis, Egypt has begun to pursue domestic and regional strategies on the ground. With the help of the European External Action Service, the country has completed a National Water Resources Plan that focuses on water management over the next two decades. The plan covers efforts to raise awareness on water usage practices, promote water conservation, reform the public water sector, invest in desalination plants, and upgrade the country’s irrigation infrastructure.

As all these measures are of vital importance to Egyptian water security, the government must implement them in a sustainable manner. Governmental bodies have announcedthat they will pursue large-scale legacy projects such as numerous desalination plants. However, it is equally, if not more, important to tackle endemic issues that have undermined Egypt’s water security, including the inefficiency of its inefficient irrigation infrastructure.

Yet significant improvements in this area will not by themselves offset GERD’s impact, let alone the broader water supply problems Egypt confronts. Cairo also needs to engage in regional diplomacy.

There are signs that Egypt has (wisely) decided to focus its diplomatic negotiating strategy on the period in which Ethiopia is filling the dam’s reservoir. It is in Cairo’s interest that Addis Ababa take as long as possible to complete this process, buying time to pursue domestic reforms and bring new desalination and water treatment plants online.

In this, Egypt will have to contend with pressure to reap the benefits of the dam from within Ethiopia. Sudan’s role is another factor that complicates the strategy. Although the country is also a beneficiary of the Nile’s downstream flow (as per the 1959 treaty), it has supported Ethiopia’s construction of GERD – much to Egypt’s consternation. A recent rise in tension between Egypt and Sudan over other issues, including a territorial dispute in the Hala’ib Triangle, may hamper Cairo’s efforts to gain support from Khartoum.

Nonetheless, it is imperative that Egypt maintains its current diplomatic momentum by pushing for a multilateral water management arrangement with Sudan and Ethiopia. Agreements between the three countries signed in May 2018, which build on the tripartite 2015 deal, provide the basis for broader cooperation, particularly in their call for regional infrastructure investment funds. As the countries face many of the same challenges, a joint regional approach to combating water scarcity and the instability it creates could be mutually beneficial.

Egypt should endeavour to defuse any conflict arising in negotiations over these challenges, because it has the most to lose. Moreover, it should envision ways to move beyond an immediate response to GERD and establish a framework for long term cooperation. It is here that the involvement of the EU can be most valuable, providing direct mediation, indirect technical support, and neutral oversight of countries’ fulfilment of agreements. Egypt’s current diplomatic drive also provides an opportunity to rework outdated treaties and construct a more robust regional framework that can meet future water security challenges. Given the threat it now faces, the country must take the lead in such efforts.

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